Business Sentiment Index (BSI) for Brunei Darussalam for April 2026

1. Brunei Darussalam Central Bank (BDCB) today published Brunei Darussalam's Business Sentiment Index (BSI) for April 2026. The index is based on monthly surveys of approximately 500 micro, small, medium, and large businesses across 11 economic sectors in all districts of Brunei Darussalam. 2. The BSI measures the level of business confidence/sentiment in the country, covering various aspects including current and future business conditions, investment, employment of workers, as well as costs of running the business. With its forward-looking approach, the BSI could serve as a leading macroeconomic indicator for the country. 3. Since its launch in August 2020, BDCB has undertaken a review of the BSI methodology to enhance the robustness, consistency and analytical value of the index. While the BSI was expressed on a scale of 0 to 100 under the previous methodology, the calculation formula constrained the index to a narrow range of 49.0 to 51.0. Following the revision, the methodology now allows the BSI to fully utilise the 0.0 to 100.0 scale, with the neutral threshold remaining at 50.0. This enhancement improves the index's sensitivity and interpretability, enabling clearer identification of shifts in sentiment. 4. This revision does not affect the economic interpretation of past results, as the underlying sentiment captured by the index remains unchanged. To ensure consistency and comparability over time, historical BSI data have been recalculated using the revised methodology and published in the Statistical Bulletin available on the BDCB website. 5. The BSI and sub-indices can be interpreted as below: BSI value Interpretation Above 50 Expansion / Optimism compared to the previous month 50 Similar / No change compared to the previous month Below 50 Contraction / Pessimism compared to the previous month 6. The main headline index, Current Business Conditions sub-index, was 63.3 in April 2026 compared to 76.2 in March 2026, indicating that businesses in general were still optimistic about business conditions despite the moderation in overall sentiment. Businesses in certain sectors generally expected a pick-up in activities following the festive period, supported by the resumption of operations, fewer holiday-related disruptions, and continued momentum in ongoing and newly secured projects. However, this was offset by pessimism, as businesses in sectors such as Wholesale & Retail Trade expected a slowdown in consumer demand. Sentiment was further weighed down by subdued market conditions, alongside rising cost pressures linked to higher input and logistics costs. The one month (1M) ahead index stood at 50.6, which indicates that business conditions are expected to remain relatively similar in May 2026 compared to April 2026. 7. The Investment sub-indices stood at 70.4 for the current month, 79.0 for the 1M ahead index and 78.5 for three months (3M) ahead, indicating healthy expectations for investments in general. Businesses expected investment activity to be directed largely towards upgrading fixed assets and equipment, infrastructure expansion and renovation work, as well as continued spending on technology and projectrelated capital expenditure, including preparations for new projects and support for higher business activity. Businesses also anticipated increased inventory purchases, partly in response to higher input costs and expected demand, alongside targeted investments in technology upgrades and staff training. 8. The Employment sub-index stood at 43.6 for the current month and 44.6 for the 1M ahead index, indicating a contraction in hiring activity across businesses. The decline in employment is expected to be driven largely by natural attrition, particularly resignations and the expiry or non-renewal of contracts, including among foreign workers. In some cases, businesses also indicated that they do not plan to immediately replace departing staff, reflecting more cautious hiring decisions moving forward. 9. The Costs sub-index was 79.8 for the current month and 72.5 for 1M ahead, indicating that businesses expected operating costs to keep increasing in the near term. Rising costs are expected to be driven mainly by higher prices of raw materials and imported inputs, as well as increased transportation and freight costs linked to elevated fuel prices. Global and geopolitical developments, particularly in West Asia, further contributed to supply disruptions and cost pressures across raw materials and logistics. At the same time, higher operational spending, including payroll costs, inventory restocking, and project-related expenditures, also contributed to expectations of overall cost increases. BSI April 2026 Current Business Conditions 63.3 1M Ahead Business Conditions 50.6 Current Investment 70.4 1M Ahead Investment 79.0 3M Ahead Investment 78.5 Current Employment 43.6 1M Ahead Employment 44.6 Current Costs 79.8 1M Ahead Costs 72.5 Note: 1M – one month, 3M – three months 10. In terms of economic sectors: Sector Index Factors Optimistic Sentiment Health & Education 81.2 More patient visits after the festive season. Oil and Gas Related 69.9 Improved product margins and tighter supply conditions, alongside expectations of higher sales volumes and prices, partly reflecting continued geopolitical tensions in West Asia. Construction 66.0 Ongoing small‑scale works, newly awarded projects, and new clients, alongside improved cash flows from incoming payments. Positive sentiment was further aided by favourable weather conditions. Hotels & Restaurants 58.2 Higher hotel bookings for rooms and event halls, alongside sustained demand for catering and takeaway services. Finance & Insurance 55.9 Increased takaful contributions and higher financing activity, including project related loan drawdowns. No Change Other Private Services 53.8 Higher operational momentum, new project awards, and increased demand for utilities, logistics, and services. However, this was partly offset by project delays, and softer activity among businesses awaiting contracts or facing limited work. Real Estate & Ownership of Dwellings 49.8 Majority of businesses reported similar conditions in general. Manufacturing 48.1 Increased orders and production, and the resumption of operations after the festive period was offset by a post‑festive demand slowdown, alongside pressures from rising input costs, supply shortages, and increased competition. Pessimistic Sentiment Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries & Livestock 40.8 Improved production among smaller businesses, supported by favourable weather, partly offset by expectations of weaker post‑festive demand among larger businesses. Transport & Communication 26.9 Lower activity during the off-peak travel period and reduced travel-related demand, partly due to geopolitical tensions in West Asia, which have affected flight connectivity and roaming usage. Wholesale & Retail Trade 20.7 End of the Eid peak season, with businesses reporting a return to normal levels of consumer spending, alongside rising cost pressures. 11. In terms of business size: Size Index Factors Optimistic Sentiment Small 66.3 Normalisation of operations and consumer activity, new project awards, and confirmed tenders boosting workloads, as well as improved weather supporting outdoor activities and farming. Large 64.5 Pickup in demand and operations, as well as stronger energy sector performance as supply disruptions lift refining margins, and new project awards. No Change Micro 49.2 Continuation of existing work and steady demand for goods and services. Pessimistic Sentiment Medium 22.3 Pullback in consumer spending as demand normalises, coupled with energy supply disruptions affecting some businesses, increased import competition, and firm-specific factors. 12. The time-series charts for the BSI and its sub-indices since August 2020 are provided in ANNEX 1. For more information on the BSI, members of the public can refer to the technical notes on the methodology and statistics on the BDCB website at www.bdcb.gov.bn and follow updates on the BSI through future press releases and BDCB’s Instagram account @centralbank.brunei.

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