Brunei Darussalam Central Bank (BDCB) today published Brunei Darussalam's Business Sentiment Index (BSI) for February 2026. The index is based on monthly surveys of approximately 500 micro, small, medium, and large businesses across 11 economic sectors in all districts of Brunei Darussalam. 

The BSI measures the level of business confidence/sentiment in the country, covering various aspects including current and future business conditions, investment, employment of workers, as well as costs of running the business. With its forward-looking approach, the BSI could serve as a leading macroeconomic indicator for the country. 

Since its launch in August 2020, BDCB has undertaken a review of the BSI methodology to enhance the robustness, consistency and analytical value of the index. While the BSI was expressed on a scale of 0 to 100 under the previous methodology, the calculation formula constrained the index to a narrow range of 49.0 to 51.0. Following the revision, the methodology now allows the BSI to fully utilise the 0.0 to 100.0 scale, with the neutral threshold remaining at 50.0. This enhancement improves the index's sensitivity and interpretability, enabling clearer identification of shifts in sentiment.

This revision does not affect the economic interpretation of past results, as the underlying sentiment captured by the index remains unchanged. To ensure consistency and comparability over time, historical BSI data will be recalculated using the revised methodology and subsequently published in the Statistical Bulletin available on the BDCB website.

The BSI and sub-indices can be interpreted as below:

The main headline index, Current Business Conditions sub-index, was recorded at 42.4 in February 2026, compared to 55.2 in January 2026, indicating more pessimistic business conditions. This was largely due to fewer operating days, as February is a shorter month with several public holidays. Reduced operating hours during the month of Ramadhan also contributed to weaker sentiment. Nevertheless, some businesses were optimistic, anticipating increased activity ahead of the festive celebrations. The one month ahead (1M) index stood at 53.1, suggesting expectations of improved conditions in March 2026. This reflects typical seasonal patterns where the Ramadhan and Eid festive period supports increased consumer spending, customer traffic, and stronger demand across sectors. Many businesses also expected better performance driven by better weather conditions, more working days, ongoing promotions, and new or continuing projects.

The Investment sub-index showed positive sentiment, with the current month index at 65.5 and the 1M index at 66.3, while the index for three months (3M) ahead stood at 83.4. Businesses indicated plans to increase investment and operational upgrades in preparation for the festive season, including stocking high‑demand items, upgrading equipment, and expanding operations. Over the next three months, investment activity is expected to increase further, driven by new and upcoming projects that require additional machinery, equipment, tools, and vehicles, as well as facility improvements.

The Employment sub-index stood at 46.2 for both the current month and 53.8 for 1M ahead. Employment conditions in February 2026 were less positive, as some businesses reduced headcount due to contract completions, resignations, or hiring delays. Most businesses maintained staffing levels and only replaced workers when necessary. Looking ahead, the outlook for the month ahead is more encouraging, with many businesses planning to hire additional staff to support increased activity.

The Costs sub-index was 66.9 for the current month and 47.8 for 1M ahead. Operating costs increased in February 2026 due to higher spending on materials, inventory, and staff-related expenses, including bonuses and overtime. However, costs are expected to ease in March 2026, primarily due to reduced activity during the Ramadhan and festive periods, which will curb spending on materials, deliveries, and overtime. Workforce-related savings are expected from the absence of bonus payments (typically paid in January), completion of major projects and the absence of major events such as consumer fairs and exhibitions.

Note: 1M – one month, 3M – three months

In terms of economic sectors:

In terms of business size:

The time-series charts for the BSI and its sub-indices since August 2020, using the revised methodology, are provided in ANNEX 1. For more information on the BSI, members of the public can refer to the technical notes on the methodology and statistics on the BDCB website at www.bdcb.gov.bn and follow updates on the BSI through future press releases and BDCB’s Instagram account @centralbank.brunei.

Business Sentiment Index (BSI) for Brunei Darussalam for February 2026

Business Sentiment Index (BSI) for Brunei Darussalam for February 2026 (MY)