Brunei Darussalam Central Bank (BDCB) today published Brunei Darussalam's Business Sentiment Index (BSI) for December 2025. The index is based on surveys conducted on about 500 micro, small, medium, and large businesses from 11 economic sectors across all districts in Brunei Darussalam.

The monthly index is designed to measure the level of business confidence/sentiment in the country, covering various aspects including current and future business conditions, investment, employment of workers, as well as costs of running the business. With its forward-looking approach, the BSI could serve as a leading macroeconomic indicator for the country.         

The BSI and sub-indices can be interpreted as below:

The main headline index, Current Business Conditions sub-index, was recorded at 50.3 in December 2025, indicating improved business conditions compared to the previous month. The optimism was mainly driven by seasonal boosts from bonus payouts in the public sector, year-end promotions, and increased consumer spending during the school holidays. Although some pessimistic views related to weather disruptions, reduced consumer traffic due to overseas travel, and project slowdowns in several sectors were reported, these were outweighed by positive sentiments from large businesses in key industries. The one month ahead (1M) index stood at 50.2, suggesting that most businesses remained positive about their prospects in January 2026, fuelled by expectations of back-to-normal operations after the holidays, new projects, and early preparations for upcoming festivities such as the Chinese New Year and Hari Raya Aidilfitri.

The Investment sub-index stood at 50.4 for the current month, 50.6 for one month (1M) ahead, and 50.3 for three months (3M) ahead, reflecting expectations that investment levels will increase over the next few months. In December 2025, most businesses foresee higher investments tied to year-end project completions, including machinery purchases, equipment upgrades, and renovation activities. In the next few months, businesses expect investment levels to continue rising, primarily driven by preparations and restocking efforts in anticipation of higher demand associated with upcoming festivities. Additional support is expected from the commencement of new projects, tender awards, increased machinery purchases, renovation activities, and the opening of new branches. 

The Employment sub-index stood at 49.9 for the current month and one month (1M) ahead. The current month index showed mild pessimism, indicating a slight decline in overall employee headcount, likely due to staff turnover, end-of-contract departures, and project completions, particularly in sectors such as Oil & Gas Related, Construction, and Wholesale & Retail Trade. Looking one month ahead, pessimism is driven by contract expirations, planned workforce reductions, and operational streamlining, although some sectors anticipate modest hiring in response to new projects and seasonal demand.

The Costs sub-index was 50.3 for the current month and 49.8 for one month ahead. In December 2025, cost increases were driven largely by year-end bonus payments, higher payroll expenses from new hires for some businesses, salary increments, and overtime and project expenditures linked to new projects and material purchases. For January 2026, overall cost pressures are expected to moderate, primarily due to a return to normal operations, reduced marketing expenses after year-end sales campaigns, and salary and headcount adjustments.

Note: 1M – one month, 3M – three months

In terms of economic sectors:

In terms of business size:

The time-series charts for the BSI and its sub-indices since August 2020 can be found in ANNEX 1. For more information on the BSI, members of the public can refer to the technical notes on the methodology and statistics on the BDCB website at www.bdcb.gov.bn and follow updates on the BSI through future press releases and BDCB’s Instagram account @centralbank.brunei.

Business Sentiment Index (BSI) for December 2025