Press Releases
|Published Date: 17-12-2025
Business Sentiment Index (BSI) for October 2025
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Brunei Darussalam Central Bank (BDCB) today published Brunei Darussalam's Business Sentiment Index (BSI) for October 2025. The index is based on surveys conducted on about 500 micro, small, medium, and large businesses from 11 economic sectors across all districts in Brunei Darussalam.
The monthly index is designed to measure the level of business confidence/sentiment in the country, covering various aspects including current and future business conditions, investment, employment of workers, as well as costs of running the business. With its forward-looking approach, the BSI could serve as a leading macroeconomic indicator for the country.
The BSI and sub-indices can be interpreted as below:
| BSI value | Interpretation |
| Above 50 | Expansion / Optimism compared to the previous month |
| 50 | Similar / No change compared to the previous month |
| Below 50 | Contraction / Pessimism compared to the previous month |
The main headline index, Current Business Conditions sub-index, was recorded at 50.4 in October 2025, indicating optimistic business conditions compared to the previous month. Business conditions improved due to several positive drivers, including higher sales and orders, seasonal demand, new project awards alongside ongoing ones, the acquisition of new clients, and active marketing efforts. Some businesses also benefited from sector-specific boosts, including increased insurance and takaful contributions, higher tourist and event bookings, and stronger poultry and agricultural sales. However, these gains were slightly affected by concerns of slowing demand for some firms, particularly export-dependent companies, competition for project opportunities among firms, and weather-related challenges affecting production and operations. The one-month-ahead (1M) index stood at 49.9, suggesting that most businesses were slightly pessimistic about their prospects in November 2025. Overall, businesses expected weaker performance, citing seasonal slowdowns, increased travel during the school holidays, contract expirations, reduced client activity, project completions, and some client-driven and weather-related disruptions.
The Investment sub-index stood at 50.4 for the current month, and 50.6 for one month (1M) ahead and three months (3M) ahead, reflecting expectations that investment levels will increase in the current month and continue to do so in the next few months. For October 2025, this was attributed to increased project activities, renovation and expansion works, system upgrades, equipment purchases, and inventory restocking to prepare for upcoming sales cycles and festive seasons. Looking ahead, businesses expect investment to rise further, mainly for project execution and preparations for year-end demand. However, businesses noted that actual investment will depend on project approvals and business performance.
The Employment sub-index stood at 49.9 for both the current month and one month (1M) ahead. Both sub-indices indicated a slight decline in headcount, primarily due to staff resignations, retirements, and contract expirations. Despite this, most businesses reported overall stable employment levels for October and November 2025 and highlighted ongoing hiring plans to replace departing staff and support new projects and business expansion. However, some small and micro businesses expressed concerns about the process of recruiting foreign workers.
The Costs sub-index was 50.4 for the current month and 50.0 for one month ahead, indicating expectations of increased costs in October 2025, which may stabilise in November 2025. Most businesses reported higher costs in October, largely driven by increased production and project-related spending. Additional factors include marketing and promotional expenses, various maintenance or repair works, and higher import, shipping and rental costs. Looking ahead, businesses expected operating costs to remain similar to those of October 2025.
BSI October 2025 | |
| Current Business Conditions | 50.4 |
| 1M Ahead Business Conditions | 49.9 |
| Current Investment | 50.4 |
| 1M Ahead Investment | 50.6 |
| 3M Ahead Investment | 50.6 |
| Current Employment | 49.9 |
| 1M Ahead Employment | 49.9 |
| Current Costs | 50.4 |
| 1M Ahead Costs | 50.0 |
Note: 1M – one month, 3M – three months
In terms of economic sectors:
| Sector | Index | Factors |
Optimistic Sentiment | Oil & Gas Related | 50.6 | While many businesses reported similar conditions compared to the previous month, several businesses reported improved conditions due to normalised production and favourable loading schedules.
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| Transport & Communication | 50.5 | This sector showed mostly stable conditions, leaning towards optimism. This was driven by seasonal operational improvements and increased activities, while others expected no change in business conditions.
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| Real Estate & Ownership of Dwellings | 50.2 | Some businesses reported slightly higher activity levels, while others reported similar business conditions to those in the previous month.
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| Finance & Insurance | 50.1 | Businesses reported a general increase in demand for financial products and services, supported by expectations of higher collections from takaful contributions and insurance premiums, as well as progress on major financing agreements.
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| Other Private Services | 50.1 | Most businesses reported improving business conditions, driven mainly by new projects, better cash flow, and progress on previously awarded project tenders.
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No Change | Hotels & Restaurants | 50.0 | Businesses reported mixed sentiments, with some experiencing slow activity, especially in bookings and events, while others saw improvements driven by marketing, promotions, and seasonal factors.
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| Manufacturing | 50.0 | Mixed sentiments were reported, with many businesses reporting steady or improved demand due to seasonal factors, with increased orders and continued production. On the other hand, some expect weaker sales, lower demand, stronger competition, operational challenges, and quieter market conditions.
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Pessimistic Sentiment | Construction | 49.9 | Most businesses reported pessimism, mainly due to cash-flow issues and a lack of new projects following the completion of existing ones. Several firms also highlight external constraints, such as bad weather and labour shortages, slowing progress and intensifying pessimism.
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| Wholesale & Retail Trade | 49.9 | Most businesses reported declining sales, weaker customer traffic, and continued month-on-month deterioration. Businesses pointed to reduced domestic spending and the likelihood of customers travelling abroad, which would pull demand away from local businesses.
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| Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries & Livestock | 49.8 | Businesses indicated slightly weaker performance in October due to operational disruptions and environmental factors.
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| Health & Education | 49.4 | Some businesses in the Health subsector cited a seasonal slowdown and reduced patient visits that led to a decline in performance in October. In contrast, the Education sector maintained similar expectations on business conditions. |
In terms of business size:
| Size | Index | Factors |
Optimistic Sentiment | Large | 50.4 | Large companies were generally optimistic for October, citing a return to normal operations, new project awards, seasonal demand improvements, and stronger sales driven by promotions and increased domestic activity.
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No change | Micro | 50.0 | Most micro-sized businesses expected business conditions in October to remain similar to September, with steady ongoing projects and routine operations. However, a few noted slight improvements from new orders or seasonal factors, and some reported mild declines due to quiet demand, as well as weather-related and operational challenges.
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Small | 50.0 | Sentiment among small-sized businesses was mixed, with optimism driven by new projects, increased orders, marketing gains and seasonal demand, while an almost equal number reported worsening conditions due to fewer projects, weak demand, weather disruptions, and slower customer spending. However, the majority remained neutral, noting steady, unchanged activity compared to the previous month.
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Pessimistic Sentiment | Medium | 49.9 | Pessimism was attributed to fewer work orders, declining sales, weaker customer demand, and an overall slowdown in business activity, leading to lower local spending. |
The time-series charts for the BSI and its sub-indices since August 2020 can be found in ANNEX 1. For more information on the BSI, members of the public can refer to the technical notes on the methodology and statistics on the BDCB website at www.bdcb.gov.bn and follow updates on the BSI through future press releases and BDCB’s Instagram account @centralbank.brunei.
