Brunei Darussalam Central Bank (BDCB) today published Brunei Darussalam's Business Sentiment Index (BSI) for April 2025. The index is based on surveys conducted on more than 500 micro, small, medium, and large businesses from 11 economic sectors across all districts in Brunei Darussalam.

The monthly index is designed to measure the level of business confidence/sentiment in the country, covering various aspects, including current and future business conditions, investment, employment of workers, as well as costs of running the business. With its forward-looking approach, the BSI could serve as a leading macroeconomic indicator for the country.         

The BSI and sub-indices can be interpreted as below:

The main headline index, Current Business Conditions sub-index was 49.9 in April 2025, indicating that, in general, businesses expected business conditions to worsen compared to the previous month. Pessimistic sentiments stemmed from expectations of lower sales, as significant spending would likely occur before the Eid celebrations, along with concerns that the weaker-than-expected market conditions observed during the Ramadhan month would persist into April. Sector-specific challenges continued to affect sentiment, particularly due to weather-related operational disruptions and external market volatility. However, some sectors expressed optimism, driven by the possibility of a seasonal surge in demand during the festive period and increased activity following the resumption of normal operating hours. The one-month (1M) ahead index edged up to 50.1, reflecting some optimism for May 2025, with some businesses anticipating a rebound in domestic activity in the post-festive season, supported by new projects and some increase in local spending with fewer people expected to travel abroad during the school examination period. 

The Investment sub-index stood at 50.3 for the current month, and 50.1 for both one month (1M) ahead and three months (3M) ahead. This indicated that businesses generally expected to increase their level of investments in April 2025 and will continue to do so in the near future. For April 2025, businesses expected to invest in system upgrades to improve operational efficiency, purchase new machinery and equipment for upcoming projects, and purchase new furniture for new and existing facilities. Over the next few months, some businesses plan to engage in expansion projects to boost operational capacity, while others anticipate investments in renovations, new vehicle acquisitions, and mid-year inventory restocking. 

The Employment sub-index stood at 50.2 for the current month and 49.9 for one month (1M) ahead, showing, in general, more hiring in April 2025 compared to the previous month and a slight reduction for May 2025. The increased hiring in the month was attributed to meeting seasonal demand during the festive period, as well as for business expansion and new projects. The survey responses supported this with several companies citing that they are currently in the process of hiring new employees. However, employment levels are expected to decline in May 2025 due to contract expirations and workforce downsizing in some businesses. 

The Costs sub-index was 49.9 for the current month and 50.1 for one month ahead. Businesses expected a decrease in costs for April 2025, driven by lower prices of raw materials, lower operational costs for some companies, and reduced overtime claims. For the month ahead, businesses forecasted costs to be higher, given the return to normal operations and the resumption of projects. Other supporting comments include global trade tensions, where global tariff pressures may lead to higher import costs.

Note: 1M – one month, 3M – three months

In terms of economic sectors, six out of 11 sectors expected optimistic business conditions in April 2025: 

• The Health & Education sector registered the highest optimism, with an index of 50.6, primarily driven by a seasonal surge in demand amid the post-Ramadan normalisation of operations. 

• The Hotels & Restaurants, and Transport & Communication sectors attributed their optimism to a combination of factors, including seasonal promotions, an influx of tourist groups, and increased bookings for venues and catering related to the Eid season and weddings. 

• The Finance & Insurance sector reported slight optimism, driven by increased demand for motor insurance, higher takaful contributions, and anticipated loan drawdowns. 

• Sentiments in the Construction and Manufacturing sectors were slightly optimistic due to expectations of new projects and increased activities. 

• The Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries, & Livestock, as well as the Wholesale & Retail Trade sectors cited slower demand during the festive season. 

• The Other Private Services sector expressed challenges regarding higher costs incurred, which affected performance. 

• Meanwhile, the Oil & Gas-related sector cited a challenging external environment. 

On the other hand, four sectors expressed pessimistic sentiments:

The remaining sector, Real Estate & Ownership of Dwellings, held steady with similar sentiments compared to the previous month.

In terms of business size, medium-sized businesses reported optimism, driven by increased job orders and more clients. On the other hand, small and large businesses generally felt pessimistic as they expected their businesses to be affected by seasonal challenges. Some businesses also cited increased competition as a factor influencing their performance. Meanwhile, micro-sized businesses expressed similar sentiments in April 2025 as they did in the previous month.  

The time-series charts for the BSI and its sub-indices since August 2020 can be found in ANNEX 1. For more information on the BSI, members of the public can refer to the technical notes on the methodology and statistics on the BDCB website at www.bdcb.gov.bn and follow updates on the BSI through future press releases and BDCB’s Instagram account @centralbank.brunei.

Business Sentiment Index (BSI) for Brunei Darussalam for April 2025

Business Sentiment Index (BSI) for Brunei Darussalam for April 2025 (MY)

Business Sentiment Index (BSI) for Brunei Darussalam for April 2025 (Others)