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Brunei Darussalam Central Bank Business Sentiment Index (BSI) For November 2022

PRESS RELEASE

BUSINESS SENTIMENT INDEX (BSI)

FOR BRUNEI DARUSSALAM FOR NOVEMBER 2022

Brunei Darussalam Central Bank (BDCB) today published Brunei Darussalam's Business Sentiment Index (BSI) for the month of November 2022. The index is based on surveys conducted on more than 600 micro-, small-, medium- and large-sized businesses from eleven economic sectors in Brunei Darussalam, across all districts.
The monthly index is designed to measure the level of business confidence/sentiment in the country covering various aspects including current and future business conditions; investments; employment of workers; as well as costs of running the businesses. Therefore, BSI serves as a leading macroeconomic indicator with its forward-looking element.
The BSI and sub-indices can be interpreted as below:
There are nine sub-indices within the BSI where the Current Business Conditions sub-index, the main headline index for the BSI, was 50.3 in November 2022 compared to 49.9 in October 2022. In general, private sector businesses were optimistic about their business conditions in November 2022 due to expectations of increased activities, sales, and projects. Some sectors, however, projected a decline in business performance due to expectations of lower production, a slowdown in activities and fewer sales related to inclement weather and the reopening of borders. Looking ahead, businesses were generally optimistic about their performance in December 2022, compared to November 2022 as indicated by the index for one month (1M) ahead, which stood at 50.5. This was driven by expectations of more projects and events towards the end of the year. December is also typically a bonus salary month for employees, as well as the school holiday and festive season. On the other hand, many businesses expressed concerns about a quieter month as more people tend to travel abroad in December.
The Investment sub-index was 50.1 for the current month, 50.0 for one month (1M) ahead and 50.1 for three months (3M) ahead. This indicates that, in general, businesses expected to increase slightly or maintain their investment expenditures in the next few months. There are several different areas that businesses intend to invest in, such as building infrastructure for farms, purchasing of materials for projects, new machinery and equipment, company vehicles, undertaking renovation for premises expansion, opening new branches, and stocking up on inventory.
The Employment sub-index was 50.3 for the current month and 50.0 for 1M ahead, indicating that in November 2022, businesses generally expected to hire more workers due to a shortage of workers and replacing those who have left as well as to expand their workforce, in line with expansion plans and increased number of projects. Looking ahead, businesses expected to maintain their employees in December 2022.
The Costs sub-index was 50.3 for the current month and 50.1 for 1M ahead. Companies generally expected the costs of running their businesses to increase in November and December 2022. Several factors were cited, such as increased food and raw materials costs; higher shipping costs; more expenditure due to repairs and maintenance works; higher project and salary expenses; increased marketing activities; and the purchase of flight tickets for outgoing foreign employees.
In terms of economic sectors, three out of eleven sectors recorded optimism in November 2022. The Finance and Insurance sector showed the largest increase in sentiment with better performance expected towards the end of the year with the rising interest rate environment and more demand for their products and services towards year-end. The Oil and Gas Related sector also expected an improvement in their performance due to higher production levels and completion of projects. On the other hand, the Construction sector showed pessimism in November 2022 on the back of fewer projects during the rainy season. Wholesale and Retail Trade also reported a contraction due to expectations of slowing demand as more people may travel abroad. Meanwhile, other sectors reported similar business conditions in November 2022 compared to October 2022.
In terms of the index by business size, medium- and large-sized businesses reported optimism in November 2022 with improved overall business conditions due to more projects and a recovery in sales in general. On the other hand, micro- and small-sized businesses reported pessimism due to expectations of fewer projects and lower sales as consumers are likely to save up for overseas holiday in December 2022.
The time-series charts for the BSI and its sub-indices since August 2020 can be found in ANNEX 1. For more information on BSI, members of the public can refer to the technical notes on the methodology and statistics on the BDCB website at www.bdcb.gov.bn and follow updates on the BSI through future press releases and BDCB's Instagram account @centralbank.brunei.